You have two options: talk to strangers or withdraw into yourself. Which one do you choose
🔺 Imagine you are on a train. Strangers are sitting around you. You want to have the most enjoyable experience possible from the ride, and you have two options: talk to strangers, or withdraw into yourself. Which do you choose?
🔺 For most of us, the answer is clear: we withdraw. Who has the patience to talk to strangers we know nothing about? They might bore us. Besides, maybe we want to get some work done, or listen to music, a podcast, something.
🔺 The act of predicting what will make us happy is called affective forecasting in psychology. We are constantly predicting how all sorts of big and small things in life will make us feel.
🔺 Researchers at the University of Chicago turned a commuter train into a laboratory for affective forecasting. They asked passengers to predict which of the two options would give them a more positive experience. Then they instructed one group to talk to a stranger and the other group to remain silent and isolated.
🔺 At the end of the ride, passengers were asked how they felt about the trip. Before departure, most predicted that talking to a stranger would be unpleasant and that withdrawing into themselves would be much better. But the actual experience proved otherwise.
🔺 Most passengers who struck up conversations reported a positive experience and said their train ride was better than usual. Even those who normally spent train time working said their productivity was not reduced by chatting with strangers.
🔺 Many studies like this show that humans are poor at affective forecasting—not only in short‑term situations like this train experiment, but in the long term as well. And this weakness seems to be most pronounced when predicting the benefits of human connection. One important reason is the undeniable fact that human relationships are often messy and unpredictable.
🔺 The issue is not necessarily that we are introverted, but that we sometimes want to avoid the potential chaos of interacting with others. Yet we tend to overestimate that chaos and underestimate the benefits of human connection: we focus too much on potential costs and dismiss the potential benefits as trivial or nonexistent.
📕 The Good Life by Robert Waldinger


